Will the U.S. personal saving rate be at least 3.0% in May 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 18.6%.
- Final market price
- 18.6%
- Event deadline
- June 25, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the U.S. personal saving rate be at least 3.0% in May 2026? The final Manifold price was 18.6%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 18.6%.
- Market data as of
- July 2, 2026 at 8:55 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 25, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 111d ago
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026 reports a headline U.S. personal saving rate of 3.0% or higher.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026 reports a headline U.S. personal saving rate of 3.0% or higher. Use the headline personal saving rate in the initial May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release. Resolve NO if the initial reported personal saving rate is 2.9% or lower. Do not use personal income, disposable personal income, PCE spending, PCE price indexes, personal outlays, real-income measures, saving in dollars, subcomponents, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the May 2026 headline personal saving rate unless there is no such release by July 1, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_disposable_personal_income_percent": -0.1, "april_2026_pce_percent": 0.5, "april_2026_personal_income_percent": 0.0, "april_2026_personal_saving_billions": 586.6, "april_2026_personal_saving_rate_percent": 2.6, "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "Headline personal saving rate, percent", "related_non_duplicates": ["Personal income, disposable personal income, and PCE spending markets are not duplicates.", "Headline/core PCE inflation, real-income, outlays, wage-and-salary, and price-index variants are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BEA's April 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release lists the next release, Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026, for June 25, 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026", "threshold": "3.0% or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA personal income data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026