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ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 65d ago

Will the U.S. personal saving rate be at least 3.0% in May 2026?

Final price
18.6%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved NO

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 18.6%.

Final market price
18.6%
Event deadline
June 25, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will the U.S. personal saving rate be at least 3.0% in May 2026? The final Manifold price was 18.6%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 18.6%.

Market data as of
July 2, 2026 at 8:55 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:03 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
June 25, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
65d ago

What this market actually measures

This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026 reports a headline U.S. personal saving rate of 3.0% or higher.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026 reports a headline U.S. personal saving rate of 3.0% or higher. Use the headline personal saving rate in the initial May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release. Resolve NO if the initial reported personal saving rate is 2.9% or lower. Do not use personal income, disposable personal income, PCE spending, PCE price indexes, personal outlays, real-income measures, saving in dollars, subcomponents, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the May 2026 headline personal saving rate unless there is no such release by July 1, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_disposable_personal_income_percent": -0.1, "april_2026_pce_percent": 0.5, "april_2026_personal_income_percent": 0.0, "april_2026_personal_saving_billions": 586.6, "april_2026_personal_saving_rate_percent": 2.6, "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "Headline personal saving rate, percent", "related_non_duplicates": ["Personal income, disposable personal income, and PCE spending markets are not duplicates.", "Headline/core PCE inflation, real-income, outlays, wage-and-salary, and price-index variants are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BEA's April 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release lists the next release, Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026, for June 25, 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026", "threshold": "3.0% or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA personal income data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ199.1

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ312

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
18.6%
Resolves
Jun 25, 2026