Will Los Angeles AQI exceed 151 at least once between June 27 – July 3, 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 15.3%.
- Final market price
- 15.3%
- Event deadline
- July 3, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Los Angeles AQI exceed 151 at least once between June 27 – July 3, 2026? The final Manifold price was 15.3%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 15.3%.
- Market data as of
- July 10, 2026 at 5:02 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 3, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 103d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution: YES if the official US AQI (as reported by AirNow.gov for the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA metro area) reaches or exceeds 150 on any day between June 27 and July 3, 2026. Resolution source: https://www.airnow.gov/ AQI 150+ = "Unhealthy" category under EPA standards.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution: YES if the official US AQI (as reported by AirNow.gov for the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA metro area) reaches or exceeds 150 on any day between June 27 and July 3, 2026. Resolution source: https://www.airnow.gov/ AQI 150+ = "Unhealthy" category under EPA standards. Context: LA averaged 44.8 AirShield-trigger days per year (2020-2024), with June averaging ~6.2 days above threshold. Late June marks the beginning of wildfire season in Southern California. [link preview]