ProbCast.coOdds Reliability
ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noiseUpdated 4m ago

Will Zvi write a full capabilities report on Gemini 4 Argon?

As of Oct 16, 2026, 3:11 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 82.0% (up from 55.3% 24 hours earlier). It had 2.9K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability
82.0%
+26.7 percentage points
over 24 hours55.3% → 82.0%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Weak

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

1K mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

2.9K mana

Total volume

3.2K mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

Broad participation
17%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

29

Trades

54

over 31h

Largest order

500 mana

3.1K mana traded across these 54 trades (last 31h).

Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.

Recent trade activity$3.1K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 26.7 percentage points over the last 24 hours (55.3% → 82.0%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesOctober 31, 2026 at 7:43 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 3:16 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next431 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life ~1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H+0.76H-0.824H+26.77D+26.7

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