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ManifoldAI / TechUpdated 42d ago

Will bot trades account for more than 75% of the total volume of trades in this market in 1 week

Final price
9.8%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved NO

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 9.8%.

Final market price
9.8%
Event deadline
August 4, 2026 at 3:41 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will bot trades account for more than 75% of the total volume of trades in this market in 1 week The final Manifold price was 9.8%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 9.8%.

Market data as of
August 7, 2026 at 12:35 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 18, 2026 at 7:03 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
August 4, 2026 at 3:41 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
42d ago

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if trading volume generated by bot accounts on Manifold Markets exceeds 75% of the platform's total trading volume over a specified 1-week (7-day) evaluation period. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if trading volume generated by bot accounts on Manifold Markets exceeds 75% of the platform's total trading volume over a specified 1-week (7-day) evaluation period. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. Platform of Choice: Unless otherwise specified by the market creator, this market specifically measures volume on Manifold Markets. Bot Definition: A trading account is defined as a "bot" if it has the official "Bot" badge on the platform or returns isBot: true via the Manifold API at the time of the trades. Evaluation Period: The creator should specify the target 7-day period in the comments or edit the description. If no week is specified, the evaluation period will default to the 7 full calendar days prior to the market's close date (from Monday 00:00 UTC to Sunday 23:59 UTC). Volume Metric: "Volume" refers to the total sum of absolute Mana (Ṁ) transacted. If total Mana volume is mathematically unverifiable through public tools, the total count of completed trades (transactions) will be used as a fallback. Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by public analytics dashboards (such as a platform-wide Dune Analytics dashboard), official statements or database queries provided by the Manifold team, or a public script querying the Manifold API for all transactions during the evaluation week. If it is completely impossible to verify the percentage of bot trades due to API or platform changes, the market will resolve to N/A. Background Manifold Markets officially supports automated trading accounts to maintain liquidity, perform cross-market arbitrage, and experiment with LLM-based forecasting agents. To comply with community guidelines, bot operators are required to toggle the "mark account as bot" setting. This flags the account permanently in the database (isBot: true) and applies a visible "Bot" badge next to their username, making automated activity trackable via the platform's public API. While bot trading is highly active on prediction platforms—often representing over 50% of the volume in fast-moving markets—crossing the 75% threshold platform-wide in a single week requires highly dominant programmatic activity relative to manual retail traders. Update 2026-07-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The evaluation will measure bot trading volume specifically within this market, rather than across the entire platform.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ39

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ822.6

Category
AI / Tech
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
9.8%
Resolves
Aug 4, 2026

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