Will Joe Biden Speak at a Rally for a Senate or House candidate in Oct or Nov 2026?
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (2.1 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution Criteria This market resolves YES if Joe Biden speaks at a rally for a Senate or House candidate in October or November 2026. A "rally" is defined as a public campaign event where Biden appears in person and delivers remarks to supporters.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution Criteria This market resolves YES if Joe Biden speaks at a rally for a Senate or House candidate in October or November 2026. A "rally" is defined as a public campaign event where Biden appears in person and delivers remarks to supporters. The event must be explicitly held on behalf of a specific Senate or House candidate. Resolution will be determined by news reports, campaign announcements, or official records documenting such appearances. The market resolves NO if no such rally occurs during this period. Resolves no on election day 2026 if no rally held before then. (Identical market to: source market)
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 30, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 13, 9:23 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.
What's happening
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ15.4
Liquidity
Ṁ100