Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
ThinTight spread
Order-book liquidity
$34.5K
Bid-ask spread
1.0 pts
24h volume
$46.2K
Total volume
$46.9K
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 28?
As of Oct 26, 2026, 10:31 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 14.5% (down from 19.0% 24 hours earlier). It had $46.2K traded in the past 24 hours, $34.5K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
14.5%
−4.5 percentage points
over 24 hours19.0% → 14.5%
Moving fastBig move, weak backingResolving soon
Thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyPolymarket
Source: Polymarket price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
UnsettledHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 2 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
71%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
12
Trades
44
over 4 days
Largest order
$1.9K
$9.4K traded across these 44 trades (last 4 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$9.4K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Resolution source: binance.com
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 4.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (19.0% → 14.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 28, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (binance.com)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 26, 10:40 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±27 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 4.5 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
- Flow one-directional across 12 participants (broad, not a single order)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
28Low
Where the price path tends to go next31 observed
- Thin-liquidity spike62%
- Choppy / mean-reverting22%
- News repricing7%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~1h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H-2.06H-4.524H-4.57D-4.5
Related markets
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?
3%YESTrust 65
Polymarket$40.2K 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?
1%YESTrust 56
Polymarket$38.4K 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October?
0%YESTrust 56
Polymarket$36.5K 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?
5%YESTrust 65
Polymarket$50K 24h
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?
0%YESTrust 76
Polymarket$50.3K 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?
3%YESTrust 72
Polymarket$58.8K 24h