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ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 55d ago

Will I witness a fight during any of my travels to Switzerland in a month?

Final price
18.3%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved NO

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 18.3%.

Final market price
18.3%
Event deadline
July 7, 2026 at 6:16 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will I witness a fight during any of my travels to Switzerland in a month? The final Manifold price was 18.3%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 18.3%.

Market data as of
July 11, 2026 at 11:37 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:03 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
July 7, 2026 at 6:16 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
55d ago

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if I witness and provide video evidence of a physical, heated confrontation ("fight") during my round-trip travel between Kansas City International Airport (MCI) and Zurich Airport (ZRH) via Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL). Travel Period: Outbound travel on June 29–30, 2026, and return travel on July 6, 2026.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if I witness and provide video evidence of a physical, heated confrontation ("fight") during my round-trip travel between Kansas City International Airport (MCI) and Zurich Airport (ZRH) via Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL). Travel Period: Outbound travel on June 29–30, 2026, and return travel on July 6, 2026. Eligible Locations: Onboard the airplanes, inside the transit/terminal buildings, or on the immediate airport grounds of MCI, ATL, and ZRH. Definition of "Fight": Any physical, heated confrontation between two or more individuals. Proof: I must upload or link video evidence of the confrontation in the comments of this market. This market resolves to NO if the round-trip is completed without me witnessing a fight, if the trip is canceled, or if I do not provide video evidence of a fight by July 13, 2026. **i can start physical confrontations**

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ130.4

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
18.3%
Resolves
Jul 7, 2026

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