Markets priced 70–80%
The individual resolved markets behind this bucket of the calibration curve. “Priced” is what the market showed 24 hours before its deadline — a real forecast, not the settlement price.
84 markets · 63 resolved YES (75%)
- Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026?Polymarket · Oct 20, 2026priced 77.0%YES✓
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?Polymarket · Oct 20, 2026priced 78.5%YES✓
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 19?Polymarket · Oct 19, 2026priced 77.5%YES✓
- Is Gemini 4 Argon a Looper ?Manifold · Oct 13, 2026priced 80.0%YES✓
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 13?Polymarket · Oct 13, 2026priced 74.5%YES✓
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?Polymarket · Oct 12, 2026priced 70.0%YES✓
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 9?Polymarket · Oct 9, 2026priced 78.0%YES✓
- Next Claude Haiku released before next Claude Fable?Manifold · Oct 7, 2026priced 75.9%YES✓
- Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026Manifold · Oct 5, 2026priced 76.2%YES✓
- Will the 46% improvement to the nanogpt speedrun be accepted?Manifold · Oct 3, 2026priced 78.8%YES✓
- Will Romania's S&P credit rating remain at "investment grade" level?Manifold · Oct 2, 2026priced 78.0%YES✓
- US announces another drawdown of Strategic Petroleum Reserve before October 1stManifold · Oct 2, 2026priced 76.7%NO✗
- Will SpaceX deploy Starlink satellites from Starship before November 1, 2026?Manifold · Sep 28, 2026priced 75.4%YES✓
- Will Team Europe win the 2026 Laver Cup?Manifold · Sep 27, 2026priced 79.0%YES✓
- Will the address for math.eg.rego.re receive more than $50 before Sep 25?Manifold · Sep 25, 2026priced 73.8%NO✗
- Will Trump's approval rating hit 38% or lower before Dec 1st 2026Manifold · Sep 23, 2026priced 71.8%YES✓
- Will Anthropic’s next Opus model be called Opus 5.5?Manifold · Sep 22, 2026priced 70.7%YES✓
- Will I finish my stuff on time?Manifold · Sep 19, 2026priced 76.6%NO✗
- SpaceX closes at $150.00 or higher on Friday 18 September 2026?Manifold · Sep 18, 2026priced 73.3%YES✓
- Bitcoin price reaches 78k USD at any point before the end of SeptemberManifold · Sep 18, 2026priced 77.9%YES✓
- Real Betis defeat Getafe ?Manifold · Sep 18, 2026priced 71.1%YES✓
- US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on September 21 2026?Manifold · Sep 17, 2026priced 77.3%YES✓
- Will Kirishima lose to anyone other than Aonishiki in the September 2026 Grand Sumo Tournament (aki basho)Manifold · Sep 15, 2026priced 76.2%YES✓
- Will 0x53a125F03c90B8E07BA50356B312F4b7b9bA47A7 REACH again more than 267.8431 USDC Base by September 14th 11:59 pm UTCManifold · Sep 15, 2026priced 76.6%NO✗
- Will Quroe's brother join Manifold before October 2026?Manifold · Sep 14, 2026priced 78.7%YES✓
- Will Oracle report Q1 FY2027 revenue of at least $19.15 billion? (September 10, 2026 earnings)Manifold · Sep 10, 2026priced 74.8%YES✓
- Will Barcelona beat Feyenoord?Manifold · Sep 10, 2026priced 77.5%YES✓
- Will my date going to be successful?Manifold · Sep 8, 2026priced 70.7%YES✓
- [SHORT FUSE] Are the widely circulated Astra benchmarks real?Manifold · Sep 4, 2026priced 78.6%YES✓
- Will OpenAI Astra beat the next version of Fable (after 5) on Artificial AnalysisManifold · Sep 3, 2026priced 76.5%NO✗
- Do you like 78% odds?Manifold · Aug 28, 2026priced 78.1%YES✓
- Will both Mercedes drivers reach SQ3 at the Dutch GP?Manifold · Aug 21, 2026priced 73.7%YES✓
- Will something happen in AI the week of Aug 21, 2026?Manifold · Aug 19, 2026priced 75.5%YES✓
- Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic Primary for governor by 10.00% or more?Manifold · Aug 11, 2026priced 77.4%NO✗
- Will Gustavo Petro be outside Colombia on August 7, 2026?Manifold · Aug 9, 2026priced 75.6%NO✗
- Do you like 74% odds?Manifold · Aug 7, 2026priced 73.9%YES✓
- Andy Ogles TN-05 Republican nominee?Manifold · Aug 6, 2026priced 70.0%NO✗
- Will Abdul El Sayed win the Michigan Democratic primary for senate by 10.00000% or more?Manifold · Aug 5, 2026priced 77.3%NO✗
- U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Polymarket · Jul 31, 2026priced 74.2%NO✗
- Will Spirit Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?Polymarket · Aug 2, 2026priced 79.0%NO✗
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 1?Polymarket · Aug 1, 2026priced 73.4%YES✓
- Will JasonMendoza2008 get promoted to masters this season?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 70.0%YES✓
- Jesse OR Travis wins Masters Season 39Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 78.5%YES✓
- Jesse OR Mochi wins Masters Season 39Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 76.1%YES✓
- Will Labour get <50% of the 1st preference vote in the 2026 Manchester mayoral by-election in any borough?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 75.4%YES✓
- Will I run further than @draaglom in July?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 71.0%YES✓
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Polymarket · Jul 31, 2026priced 73.0%YES✓
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2026 meeting?Kalshi · Jul 29, 2026priced 77.5%YES✓
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Polymarket · Jul 28, 2026priced 72.0%YES✓
- Democratic Senate nominee to replace Graham Platner will be Patrick Dempsey or Troy Jackson or Shenna Bellows.Manifold · Jul 25, 2026priced 77.2%YES✓
- Will Jay Feely win the Republican Primary for Arizona's 1st Congressional District on July 21, 2026?Manifold · Jul 25, 2026priced 74.5%YES✓
- Will more than 5 distinct bots trade in this market?Manifold · Jul 23, 2026priced 78.9%NO✗
- Will Fable usage on subscription be extended again past July 19?Manifold · Jul 18, 2026priced 75.6%YES✓
- Will Stunt become a shipwright?Manifold · Jul 17, 2026priced 75.4%NO✗
- Will SpaceX close at a value below its IPO price before the end of 2026?Manifold · Jul 16, 2026priced 79.9%YES✓
- Will US CPI inflation (CPI-U, 12-month, June 2026) exceed 4.0%?Manifold · Jul 14, 2026priced 75.0%NO✗
- Will the St. Louis Cardinals have 50 or more wins entering the 2026 All-Star Break?Manifold · Jul 14, 2026priced 76.3%YES✓
- Will "Moana" earn more than $60M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekendManifold · Jul 14, 2026priced 77.1%NO✗
- Will GPT-5.6-Sol score at least 59 on the Artificial Analysis Index?Manifold · Jul 13, 2026priced 75.9%YES✓
- Can I stay off socials for 7 days straight?Manifold · Jul 13, 2026priced 73.0%YES✓
- GPT-5.6 released by July 10?Manifold · Jul 9, 2026priced 77.5%YES✓
- GPT-5.6 released by July 13?Manifold · Jul 9, 2026priced 75.8%YES✓
- GPT-5.6 Outperforms Claude Fable 5 on FrontierMath Tier 4?Manifold · Jul 9, 2026priced 74.3%NO✗
- Will there be widespread fuel shortages in Moscow city before 1 December 2026?Manifold · Jul 7, 2026priced 74.8%YES✓
- Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Polymarket · Jun 6, 2026priced 71.5%YES✓
- Will I pass my ap euro examManifold · Jul 6, 2026priced 78.0%NO✗
- When Fable access returns, will it be available as part of the monthly paid plan?Manifold · Jul 2, 2026priced 77.8%YES✓
- Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 15?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 72.6%YES✓
- Will the public officially be able to access Fable 5 again by the end of.July?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 73.0%YES✓
- Will Berkshire Hathaway outperform S&P 500 in June?Manifold · Jun 30, 2026priced 79.4%YES✓
- Will the U.S. Supreme Court release a signed opinion in Trump v. Barbara on or before June 30, 2026 (6/30/26)?Manifold · Jun 30, 2026priced 78.9%YES✓
- Will I go to gym at least 2 times this week?Manifold · Jun 28, 2026priced 78.7%NO✗
- Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?Manifold · Jun 27, 2026priced 75.0%YES✓
- Is Roblox YouTuber VanilBean will first time play brawl stars?Manifold · Jun 27, 2026priced 78.5%NO✗
- Will Micron (MU) close at least 10% above its June 24, 2026 regular-session close by the end of June 25, 2026?Manifold · Jun 25, 2026priced 77.0%YES✓
- Starmer out before November?Manifold · Jun 22, 2026priced 74.6%YES✓
- Will Keir Starmer resign, or announce his intention to, on Monday 22 June?Manifold · Jun 22, 2026priced 74.7%YES✓
- Will I go to the gym at least 2 times this weekManifold · Jun 22, 2026priced 73.4%NO✗
- Will Gustavo Petro claim fraud in Colombia's 2026 presidential election?Manifold · Jun 21, 2026priced 76.3%YES✓
- Melbourne Auction clearance rates fall below 50% this weekend.Manifold · Jun 18, 2026priced 72.7%NO✗
- Will this resolves to Yes or NoManifold · Jun 16, 2026priced 75.5%YES✓
- Will the U.S. and Iran announce a new ceasefire agreement before September 1, 2026?Manifold · Jun 14, 2026priced 74.0%YES✓
- Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion, on June 12th, the IPO date of Spacex?Manifold · Jun 12, 2026priced 78.3%YES✓
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) closing price on its first trading day be greater than $135?Manifold · Jun 12, 2026priced 72.0%YES✓
Shows up to the 200 most recent graded outcomes in this range. ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.