Will US CPI inflation (CPI-U, 12-month, June 2026) exceed 4.0%?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 75.0%.
- Final market price
- 75.0%
- Event deadline
- July 18, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will US CPI inflation (CPI-U, 12-month, June 2026) exceed 4.0%? The final Manifold price was 75.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 75.0%.
- Market data as of
- July 17, 2026 at 9:37 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 18, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 95d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves based on the official U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index news release for June 2026 data, scheduled for publication in mid-July 2026 at https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ Resolves YES if the CPI-U (Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, U.S.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves based on the official U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index news release for June 2026 data, scheduled for publication in mid-July 2026 at https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ Resolves YES if the CPI-U (Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, U.S. city average, all items) 12-month percentage change (not seasonally adjusted) for June 2026, as printed in that release, is GREATER THAN 4.0%. Resolves NO if it is 4.0% or below. For reference: April 2026 CPI-U came in at 3.8% YoY (released 2026-05-12), the highest since mid-2023, driven by an energy-price spike. The May 2026 report is due 2026-06-10. The headline NSA 12-month figure as reported by BLS is the sole resolution source — not core CPI, not seasonally-adjusted, not a third-party estimate. If BLS delays or revises, the first officially-published June 2026 12-month headline figure governs.