Will Gustavo Petro be outside Colombia on August 7, 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 75.6%.
- Final market price
- 75.6%
- Event deadline
- August 7, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Gustavo Petro be outside Colombia on August 7, 2026? The final Manifold price was 75.6%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 75.6%.
- Market data as of
- August 9, 2026 at 9:19 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 7, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 72d ago
What this market actually measures
Background: Following the August 1 incident at Tolú Airport (where President Gustavo Petro remained inside the presidential aircraft after returning from Cuba and left without landing) and the upcoming presidential transition on August 7, there is speculation surrounding his presence in the country. Resolution Criteria: *YES:** This market resolves to YES if Gustavo Petro is physically outside the national territory …
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Background: Following the August 1 incident at Tolú Airport (where President Gustavo Petro remained inside the presidential aircraft after returning from Cuba and left without landing) and the upcoming presidential transition on August 7, there is speculation surrounding his presence in the country. Resolution Criteria: *YES:** This market resolves to YES if Gustavo Petro is physically outside the national territory of Colombia at any point on August 7, 2026 (00:00 to 23:59 COT), as confirmed by major news outlets or official government communications. *NO:** This market resolves to NO if Gustavo Petro remains inside Colombian territory for the entire duration of August 7, 2026. *Verification Sources:** Major reputable news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, El Tiempo) or official state press releases. If no credible evidence shows he left the country on that date, the market will resolve to *NO**.