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ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 82d ago

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion, on June 12th, the IPO date of Spacex?

Final price
87.0%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 87.0%.

Final market price
87.0%
Event deadline
June 13, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion, on June 12th, the IPO date of Spacex? The final Manifold price was 87.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 87.0%.

Market data as of
June 15, 2026 at 11:44 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:09 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
June 13, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
82d ago

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve based on Elon Musk's net worth as reported by Forbes and Bloomberg. If both of these sources agree that Elon Musk has a net worth of greater than or equal to $1 trillion on June 12th this resolves Yes.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve based on Elon Musk's net worth as reported by Forbes and Bloomberg. If both of these sources agree that Elon Musk has a net worth of greater than or equal to $1 trillion on June 12th this resolves Yes. This market will include after market updates that happen before the beginning of the next trading day. References for resolution: Elon Musk Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ14.2K

Liquidity

Ṁ1K

Total volume

Ṁ26.1K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
87.0%
Resolves
Jun 13, 2026

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