ManifoldPoliticsUpdated 34d ago
Will Labour get <50% of the 1st preference vote in the 2026 Manchester mayoral by-election in any borough?
Final price
75.4%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 75.4%.
- Final market price
- 75.4%
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 75.4%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 75.4%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Labour get <50% of the 1st preference vote in the 2026 Manchester mayoral by-election in any borough? The final Manifold price was 75.4%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 75.4%.
- Market data as of
- August 2, 2026 at 1:35 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 5, 2026 at 1:08 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 34d ago
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ21
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 75.4%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026