Will Labour get <50% of the 1st preference vote in the 2026 Manchester mayoral by-election in any borough?
Final price
75.4%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Price historyManifold
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
Resolved YES
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 75.4%.
- Final market price
- 75.4%
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 75.4%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 75.4%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Labour get <50% of the 1st preference vote in the 2026 Manchester mayoral by-election in any borough? The final Manifold price was 75.4%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 75.4%.
- Market data as of
- August 2, 2026 at 1:35 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:44 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 80d ago