Will more than 5 distinct bots trade in this market?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 78.9%.
- Final market price
- 78.9%
- Event deadline
- July 23, 2026 at 2:41 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will more than 5 distinct bots trade in this market? The final Manifold price was 78.9%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 78.9%.
- Market data as of
- July 27, 2026 at 1:36 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 23, 2026 at 2:41 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 86d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if at least 6 distinct accounts designated as bots on Manifold Markets execute at least one trade in this market before it closes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if at least 6 distinct accounts designated as bots on Manifold Markets execute at least one trade in this market before it closes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. Bot Designation: An account is considered a "bot" if it has the official "Bot" label or tag on Manifold (either self-assigned in profile settings or designated by staff) at any point during the market's lifespan or prior to resolution. Definition of a Trade: A trade is defined as buying or selling shares, or having a limit order filled. Non-transaction activities such as commenting, liking, or editing do not count. Distinct Accounts: Each unique bot account will only count once toward the total, regardless of how many individual trades it executes. Background Manifold Markets allows users to create automated trading bots using the platform's public API. Creators can self-flag these accounts with a "Bot" status in their profile settings. Common bot strategies include market making, arbitrage across related markets, and sentiment analysis via large language models. Many of these bots are configured to automatically detect and trade in newly created markets. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.