Do you like 78% odds?
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesAugust 28, 2026 at 2:44 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 21, 9:13 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ109.4
Liquidity
Ṁ10K
Total volume
Ṁ0
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold