Will the U.S. and Iran announce a new ceasefire agreement before September 1, 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 95.0%.
- Final market price
- 95.0%
- Event deadline
- August 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 95.0%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 95.0%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the U.S. and Iran announce a new ceasefire agreement before September 1, 2026? The final Manifold price was 95.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 95.0%.
- Market data as of
- June 16, 2026 at 3:42 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 127d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution: YES if, between June 11 and August 31, 2026, the United States and Iran publicly announce a new ceasefire, truce, or formal cessation-of-hostilities agreement (bilateral, or a broader multiparty agreement that explicitly includes both the U.S. and Iran), as reported by Reuters or the Associated Press.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution: YES if, between June 11 and August 31, 2026, the United States and Iran publicly announce a new ceasefire, truce, or formal cessation-of-hostilities agreement (bilateral, or a broader multiparty agreement that explicitly includes both the U.S. and Iran), as reported by Reuters or the Associated Press. A discrete announced agreement resolves YES even if it later collapses. The pre-existing/frayed April 2026 arrangement does NOT count — this market tracks a NEW agreement announced on or after June 11, 2026. Mere statements of intent, calls for a ceasefire, or unconfirmed reports do not resolve YES; an actual announced agreement does. Resolves NO if no such agreement is announced by Aug 31, 2026 23:59 UTC.