Will something happen in AI the week of Aug 21, 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 67.6%.
- Final market price
- 67.6%
- Event deadline
- August 19, 2026 at 3:51 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will something happen in AI the week of Aug 21, 2026? The final Manifold price was 67.6%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 67.6%.
- Market data as of
- August 22, 2026 at 3:59 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:44 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 19, 2026 at 3:51 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 60d ago
What this market actually measures
This market refers to any event that happens starting at 5pm EST on August 14, until 5pm EST on August 21. This is intended as a regular series.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market refers to any event that happens starting at 5pm EST on August 14, until 5pm EST on August 21. This is intended as a regular series. Something happens is defined as anything that: Zvi does NOT know about on August 14, 2026 at 5pm EST. Obligates (not merely allows) a speed premium post to Don't Worry About the Vase Is about AI. The speed premium post can happen after Friday, but the central events that trigger it must occur by Friday 5pm eastern. It is 100% entirely Zvi's judgment on whether a post was obligated or merely allowed. Resolves YES if this happens. Resolves NO if it does not. If you are betting YES because you believe something has happened, and it has not yet been mentioned in the comments, please mention it and link to it in the comments. I may respond to affirm that particular things put forward do or do not, as of yet, constitute something happening. I am in no way committing to doing this. If and only if I affirm a YES in this way, then I will resolve the market early. I have decided this is better than maintaining full radio silence. As a helpful example, the Dwarkesh podcast with Ryan Greenblatt ALLOWS a speed premium post but did not obligate one, so it did not count.