Will SpaceX (SPCX) closing price on its first trading day be greater than $135?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 97.4%.
- Final market price
- 97.4%
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 97.4%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 97.4%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will SpaceX (SPCX) closing price on its first trading day be greater than $135? The final Manifold price was 97.4%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 97.4%.
- Market data as of
- June 15, 2026 at 3:58 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 5, 2026 at 1:06 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 82d ago
What this market actually measures
This market is about the closing price of SpaceX stock on its first public trading day under the ticker SPCX. Resolving rules This market will resolve YES if the closing price of SPCX on Yahoo Finance for its first day of public trading is strictly greater than $135.00.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market is about the closing price of SpaceX stock on its first public trading day under the ticker SPCX. Resolving rules This market will resolve YES if the closing price of SPCX on Yahoo Finance for its first day of public trading is strictly greater than $135.00. This market will resolve NO if the closing price of SPCX on Yahoo Finance for its first day of public trading is less than or equal to $135.00. So: If the closing price is $135.01 or higher, this resolves YES. If the closing price is exactly $135.00, this resolves NO. If the closing price is below $135.00, this resolves NO. The closing price means the regular-market closing price shown by Yahoo Finance, not the after-hours price. Source for the closing price I will use the closing price shown by Yahoo Finance for ticker SPCX. After the first trading day ends, I will wait until the closing price is clearly available on Yahoo Finance and then resolve this market. Edge cases If SpaceX begins public trading under a ticker other than SPCX, this market will resolve N/A. If SpaceX does not begin public trading under ticker SPCX before this market closes, this market will resolve N/A. Author betting policy The author of this market can place bets on it.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ4.7K
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ5.8K
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 97.4%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026