ProbCast.coOdds Reliability
ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDevelopingUpdated 9m ago

Will SpaceX have a higher market cap than Amazon at the end of 2026?

As of Oct 21, 2026, 1:35 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 11.1% (down from 12.9% 24 hours earlier). It had 250 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
11.1%
−1.8 percentage points
over 24 hours12.9% → 11.1%

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, with broad trading across many accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

1K mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

250 mana

Total volume

2.9K mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

Broad participation
21%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

26

Trades

47

over 126 days

Largest order

550 mana

2.9K mana traded across these 47 trades (last 126 days).

Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.

Recent trade activity$2.9K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolves per this: https://companiesmarketcap.com/ [link preview]

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolves per this: https://companiesmarketcap.com/ [link preview]

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 21, 1:45 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
22Low
Where the price path tends to go next624 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~36h
PredictabilityStable

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H-1.824H-1.87D-1.8

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