Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 17.3% (down from 18.5% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ2.8K traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ1K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, at any point on or before December 31, 2026, the trading price of SpaceX Class A Common Stock (Nasdaq: SPCX) drops below $100.00 USD. This includes regular trading hours, pre-market, and after-hours trading.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, at any point on or before December 31, 2026, the trading price of SpaceX Class A Common Stock (Nasdaq: SPCX) drops below $100.00 USD. This includes regular trading hours, pre-market, and after-hours trading. The primary source of truth for the stock price of SPCX will be Yahoo Finance. If a stock split, reverse split, stock dividend, or other recapitalization event occurs, the $100.00 target threshold will be adjusted proportionally (e.g., a 2-for-1 stock split would adjust the target threshold to $50.00). If the stock does not drop below $100.00 (or its split-adjusted equivalent) at any point by the close of the final trading session of 2026, this market will resolve to NO. If SpaceX is acquired, delisted, or ceases to trade prior to the end of 2026 without having dropped below $100.00, the market will resolve to NO. Background SpaceX priced its historic initial public offering (IPO) at $135 per share on June 11, 2026, raising $75 billion and valuing the company at $1.77 trillion. Under the ticker SPCX, the Class A common stock began public trading on the Nasdaq exchange on June 12, 2026. This market tracks whether the stock will fall approximately 26% from its IPO offer price of $135 to reach double digits ($99.99 or lower) at any point during its first several months of trading.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 30, 9:10 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±15 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ2.8K
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ42.5K
- Category
- Uncategorized
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 17.3%
- 7-day range
- 17.3% – 18.5%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026