GPT-5.6 Outperforms Claude Fable 5 on FrontierMath Tier 4?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 74.3%.
- Final market price
- 74.3%
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 74.3%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 74.3%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
GPT-5.6 Outperforms Claude Fable 5 on FrontierMath Tier 4? The final Manifold price was 74.3%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 74.3%.
- Market data as of
- July 13, 2026 at 7:19 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:40 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 99d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves to the next GPT model released regardless of number. Only the “stock” GPT counts, so no mini, nano, pro, codex, etc Update 2026-06-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The model "Sol" will count as the relevant GPT model for this market, as its pricing is comparable to GPT-5.5.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves to the next GPT model released regardless of number. Only the “stock” GPT counts, so no mini, nano, pro, codex, etc Update 2026-06-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The model "Sol" will count as the relevant GPT model for this market, as its pricing is comparable to GPT-5.5.