Will SpaceX close at a value below its IPO price before the end of 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 79.9%.
- Final market price
- 79.9%
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 79.9%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 79.9%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will SpaceX close at a value below its IPO price before the end of 2026? The final Manifold price was 79.9%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 79.9%.
- Market data as of
- July 19, 2026 at 11:37 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:40 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 93d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the daily closing price of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) Class A common stock on the NASDAQ exchange is strictly less than $135.00 on any trading day between the market's creation and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the daily closing price of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) Class A common stock on the NASDAQ exchange is strictly less than $135.00 on any trading day between the market's creation and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). If the stock never closes below $135.00 during normal market trading hours on or before December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to NO. In the event of stock splits, the share price of this threshold will be adjusted as necessary to compensate.