Will OpenAI Astra beat the next version of Fable (after 5) on Artificial Analysis
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.0%.
- Final market price
- 1.0%
- Event deadline
- September 3, 2026 at 4:48 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will OpenAI Astra beat the next version of Fable (after 5) on Artificial Analysis The final Manifold price was 1.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.0%.
- Market data as of
- September 6, 2026 at 5:33 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 3, 2026 at 4:48 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 44d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if OpenAI’s upcoming model "Astra" (or the first released model from the Astra family, regardless of its final commercial name) achieves a strictly higher score than the direct successor to Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 (e.g., Claude Fable 6, or the next major iteration of the Fable model family) on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. It resolves to NO if the next …
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if OpenAI’s upcoming model "Astra" (or the first released model from the Astra family, regardless of its final commercial name) achieves a strictly higher score than the direct successor to Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 (e.g., Claude Fable 6, or the next major iteration of the Fable model family) on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. It resolves to NO if the next version of Fable scores higher than or equal to OpenAI Astra on the index. Rules & Edge Cases: Source of Truth: Scores will be verified using the primary composite index on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. Model Configurations: If either model has multiple listed entries or configurations on the leaderboard (e.g., "max effort", "with fallback", different parameter sizes), the highest published score for each respective model family will be used. Model Naming: "Astra" refers to the OpenAI model family internally designated as Astra (publicly acknowledged by OpenAI in August 2026). If it is commercially released under a different name (e.g., GPT-6), the creator will use credible industry consensus to identify the correct model. "Next version of Fable" refers to the direct successor to Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 (released in mid-2026). No-Release / Cutoff Fallback: If either OpenAI Astra or the next version of Fable (after 5) is not released and scored on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index by December 31, 2027, this market will resolve to N/A. Background In mid-2026, Anthropic released Claude Fable 5, which immediately claimed the #1 spot on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. In August 2026, OpenAI officially confirmed the development of "Astra," its next major model family. Early reports indicate that Astra possesses advanced agentic capabilities, having solved several long-standing open mathematics problems during internal testing before its training was temporarily paused to establish stronger cybersecurity safeguards. This market tracks whether OpenAI's next-generation Astra architecture can outperform Anthropic's subsequent iteration of its top-performing Fable line on Artificial Analysis's independent, agent-weighted benchmark. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.