ProbCast.coOdds Reliability
ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDevelopingUpdated 5m ago

Will Anthropic’s IPO S-1 be public by 31 October 2026?

As of Oct 12, 2026, 3:09 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 50.8% (up from 50.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 342 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 10K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
50.8%
+0.8 percentage points
over 24 hours50.0% → 50.8%

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

10K mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

342 mana

Total volume

342 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

A few accounts
46%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

7

Trades

9

over 2h

Largest order

100 mana

362 mana traded across these 9 trades (last 2h).

A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.

Recent trade activity$362 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesOctober 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 3:14 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
7Low
Where the price path tends to go next464 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting93%
  • Stable consensus3%
  • Illiquid / quiet2%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

342 mana

Liquidity

10K mana

Total volume

342 mana

Category
AI / Tech
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
50.8%
7-day range
50.0% – 51.5%
Resolves
Oct 30, 2026
Change (pts)1H-0.66H+0.824H+0.87D+0.8

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