Will the public officially be able to access Fable 5 again by the end of.July?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 73.0%.
- Final market price
- 73.0%
- Event deadline
- July 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 73.0%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 73.0%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the public officially be able to access Fable 5 again by the end of.July? The final Manifold price was 73.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 73.0%.
- Market data as of
- July 2, 2026 at 8:55 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 111d ago
What this market actually measures
Today, Anthropic announced the US government directed them to shut down access to Mythos 5 and Fable 5 for foreign nationals due to national security concerns. As a result, Anthropic is removing access to the models to all customers.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Today, Anthropic announced the US government directed them to shut down access to Mythos 5 and Fable 5 for foreign nationals due to national security concerns. As a result, Anthropic is removing access to the models to all customers. You can read Anthropic's statement here: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access This question will resolve yes if Anthropic makes a public statement (via X, their website, or other similar means) by July 31st at 11:59 et indicating that the public's access to Fable 5 is restored. The question resolved if no such statement is made by Anthropic by this date. Restorations of access that do not include foreign national customers will not count. Due to subjective resolution criteria I will not trade on this market. [link preview]Update 2026-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding access for foreign nationals: if any foreign nationals can access the model legitimately, that is sufficient to resolve YES, even if a specific process is required — as long as most members of the public could follow that process. Example that would resolve YES: uploading a passport Example that would not resolve YES: requiring a PhD and pursuit of frontier research Update 2026-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Access restored to all US customers (including foreign nationals residing in the US), even if not extended to customers in other countries, is sufficient to resolve YES.