Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 15?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 98.9%.
- Final market price
- 98.9%
- Event deadline
- July 16, 2026 at 2:59 AM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 98.9%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 98.9%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 15? The final Manifold price was 98.9%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 98.9%.
- Market data as of
- July 2, 2026 at 10:15 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 16, 2026 at 2:59 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 111d ago
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if, before July 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, Anthropic officially restores access to Claude Fable 5 — or a direct successor/replacement branded as Fable — for users in the United States. For YES, access must be meaningfully usable by American users through at least one official Anthropic channel, including: Claude web/app Anthropic API Claude Code or another official Anthropic developer product E…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if, before July 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, Anthropic officially restores access to Claude Fable 5 — or a direct successor/replacement branded as Fable — for users in the United States. For YES, access must be meaningfully usable by American users through at least one official Anthropic channel, including: Claude web/app Anthropic API Claude Code or another official Anthropic developer product Enterprise/Team/Max/Pro access, if available to ordinary U.S.-based customers or U.S. persons under clearly stated criteria This market resolves NO if Fable is not officially reenabled for Americans by the deadline. Background: Anthropic stated on June 12, 2026 that a U.S. government directive required it to suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for foreign nationals, and that Anthropic disabled the models for all customers while working to restore access. What counts as “Americans”: For this market, “Americans” means users Anthropic identifies as eligible U.S. users, such as U.S.-based users, U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or U.S. persons, depending on the access rule Anthropic publishes. What does not count: Rumors, leaks, Discord comments, screenshots, or isolated anecdotes without official confirmation. Access only for Anthropic employees, internal testers, government users, or a closed non-commercial safety group. Access through unofficial proxies, VPN workarounds, jailbreaks, mirrors, or third-party resellers. Reenabling of Mythos only, unless Fable itself or a direct Fable successor is also available. A vague announcement that access is “coming soon” without actual availability before the deadline. Resolution source hierarchy: Official Anthropic announcement, status page, docs, API docs, or product UI. Official government statement if it directly confirms access restoration. Reputable reporting may be used only if official sources are unavailable but the access restoration is clearly documented. Edge cases: If Fable is restored only for API customers in the U.S., resolves YES. If Fable is restored only for paid U.S. users, resolves YES. If Fable is restored only for a narrow invite-only beta, resolves NO, unless the beta is broadly available to U.S. customers under public eligibility criteria. If access is restored after July 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, resolves NO.