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PolymarketGeopoliticsUpdated 45d ago

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?

Final price
0.1%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved NO

This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 0.1%.

Final market price
0.1%
Event deadline
July 31, 2026 at 7:59 AM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? The final Polymarket price was 0.1%. This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 0.1%.

Market data as of
August 2, 2026 at 10:48 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 16, 2026 at 6:53 PM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
July 31, 2026 at 7:59 AM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
45d ago

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

Market data

24h volume

$105K

Liquidity

$245.4K

Total volume

$2.4M

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
Spread
0.0 pts
Best bid
0.1%
Best ask
0.1%
Resolves
Jul 31, 2026

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