Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 76.2%.
- Final market price
- 76.2%
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 76.2%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 76.2%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026 The final Manifold price was 76.2%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 76.2%.
- Market data as of
- October 5, 2026 at 3:31 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 5, 2026 at 3:39 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 8m ago
What this market actually measures
The service allows anyone within some area (possibly a restricted area, possibly not) to hail an autonomous Tesla. They are either not able to or not required to drive it themselves.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
The service allows anyone within some area (possibly a restricted area, possibly not) to hail an autonomous Tesla. They are either not able to or not required to drive it themselves. Dec 3, 7:12pm: Will Tesla provide an autonomous driving service before the end of 2026 → Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026 Update 2026-01-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve YES until the service has a larger number of cars operating in the area. A small pilot program where most hail attempts result in a safety driver does not meet the resolution requirements for an autonomous service. Update 2026-01-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the market to resolve YES, wait times must stay under 20 minutes over a practically broad area to count as the service being available. Update 2026-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is waiting for clearer evidence that the service is meeting demand before resolving YES. Currently, wait-time tracking data is unavailable, making it impossible to verify whether the service meets the criteria (wait times under 20 minutes over a practically broad area). Update 2026-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator acknowledges that wait time is an imperfect metric and that no single ungameable metric exists. The market may not hinge solely on wait times — the creator will use judgment across multiple indicators of whether a real, broadly available service is being provided, rather than a small-scale public spectacle. Resolution note: This market resolves identically to the corresponding source market, including N/A or partial resolutions. Any first-person language refers to that market's creator, not this market's creator.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ117.5
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 76.2%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026