Will there be widespread fuel shortages in Moscow city before 1 December 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 74.8%.
- Final market price
- 74.8%
- Event deadline
- November 30, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 74.8%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 74.8%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will there be widespread fuel shortages in Moscow city before 1 December 2026? The final Manifold price was 74.8%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 74.8%.
- Market data as of
- July 11, 2026 at 12:58 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:44 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- November 30, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 102d ago
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if Moscow city (not the whole oblast) suffers from widespread fuel shortages before 1 December 2026. It resolves NO if no such shortage occurs until then.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if Moscow city (not the whole oblast) suffers from widespread fuel shortages before 1 December 2026. It resolves NO if no such shortage occurs until then. Indicators of a shortage could include, amongst others: Fuel rationing is instituted Very long queues at gas stations The government declares a state of emergency concerning fuel