Starmer out before November?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 74.6%.
- Final market price
- 74.6%
- Event deadline
- October 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 74.6%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 74.6%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Starmer out before November? The final Manifold price was 74.6%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 74.6%.
- Market data as of
- June 25, 2026 at 4:27 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:39 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- October 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 118d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This is an independent multiple-choice market. Each option will resolve to YES if Donald Trump publicly mentions the specific phrase or its designated variations between June 2, 2026, and December 31, 2026, and NO otherwise.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This is an independent multiple-choice market. Each option will resolve to YES if Donald Trump publicly mentions the specific phrase or its designated variations between June 2, 2026, and December 31, 2026, and NO otherwise. A "mention" is defined as Donald Trump explicitly speaking, writing, or publishing the term in: Public speeches, press conferences, or interviews as transcribed in speaker-tagged databases such as Factbase or Senate Democrats' Newsroom Trump Transcripts. Official social media accounts (Truth Social @realDonaldTrump or Twitter/X @realDonaldTrump). Signed White House executive orders, official press releases, or policy declarations issued under his name.