US announces another drawdown of Strategic Petroleum Reserve before October 1st
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 76.7%.
- Final market price
- 76.7%
- Event deadline
- September 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
US announces another drawdown of Strategic Petroleum Reserve before October 1st The final Manifold price was 76.7%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 76.7%.
- Market data as of
- October 3, 2026 at 8:20 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:38 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 17d ago
What this market actually measures
Based on official announcements of department of energy or other relevant authorities. Context: President Trump authorized the Department of Energy to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, beginning next week.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Based on official announcements of department of energy or other relevant authorities. Context: President Trump authorized the Department of Energy to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, beginning next week. This will take approximately 120 days to deliver based on planned discharge rates (March 11th, https://www.energy.gov/articles/united-states-release-172-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve) The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve as of July 10th is 316.5 million barrels, down from 415 million pre-war. The past weeks have seen decreases of 5-9 millions a week. Some historical trends at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcsstus1&f=m, note that this is in thousands of barrels)