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ManifoldAI / TechUpdated 53d ago

GPT-5.6 released by July 10?

Final price
77.5%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 77.5%.

Final market price
77.5%
Event deadline
July 11, 2026 at 2:59 AM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

GPT-5.6 released by July 10? The final Manifold price was 77.5%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 77.5%.

Market data as of
July 14, 2026 at 12:24 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:06 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
July 11, 2026 at 2:59 AM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
53d ago

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria — “GPT-5.6 released by July 10?” This market resolves YES if OpenAI officially releases a model named GPT-5.6 to any meaningful public user group on or before July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM PT. A release counts if at least one of the following is true: OpenAI announces GPT-5.6 on an official OpenAI channel, such as the OpenAI blog, OpenAI release notes, OpenAI Help Center, OpenAI API docs, or official Op…

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria — “GPT-5.6 released by July 10?” This market resolves YES if OpenAI officially releases a model named GPT-5.6 to any meaningful public user group on or before July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM PT. A release counts if at least one of the following is true: OpenAI announces GPT-5.6 on an official OpenAI channel, such as the OpenAI blog, OpenAI release notes, OpenAI Help Center, OpenAI API docs, or official OpenAI social accounts. GPT-5.6 becomes available in ChatGPT to a real user tier, including Plus, Pro, Team, Enterprise, Edu, or Free. GPT-5.6 becomes available through the OpenAI API, even if ChatGPT access comes later. OpenAI releases a clearly named variant such as GPT-5.6 Pro, GPT-5.6 mini, GPT-5.6 Instant, or similar, provided OpenAI identifies it as part of the GPT-5.6 family. This market resolves NO if, by the cutoff, there is no official OpenAI release of GPT-5.6. Does not count: Rumors, leaks, screenshots, third-party reporting, prediction market odds, “coming soon” statements, internal-only testing, private alpha access, benchmark references, log traces, or unconfirmed model IDs. Edge cases: An API-only release counts as YES. A ChatGPT-only release counts as YES. A limited rollout counts as YES if ordinary eligible users outside OpenAI can access it. A model like GPT-5.5-Cyber, GPT-5.5 update, or another non-5.6 model does not count. OpenAI’s current official model pages and notes list GPT-5.5, but I found no official GPT-5.6 release yet.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ6.5K

Liquidity

Ṁ1K

Total volume

Ṁ19.2K

Category
AI / Tech
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
77.5%
Resolves
Jul 11, 2026

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