Markets priced 80–90%
The individual resolved markets behind this bucket of the calibration curve. “Priced” is what the market showed 24 hours before its deadline — a real forecast, not the settlement price.
73 markets · 64 resolved YES (88%)
- Will there be an "AI In Context" video about the Hugging Face incident?Manifold · Oct 20, 2026priced 84.2%YES✓
- Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026?Polymarket · Oct 18, 2026priced 88.0%YES✓
- Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026?Polymarket · Oct 18, 2026priced 84.5%YES✓
- Will Jio Platforms IPO in 2026?Manifold · Oct 17, 2026priced 89.4%YES✓
- Will the Dow Jones close above 51,000 on Wednesday, October 14, 2026?Manifold · Oct 16, 2026priced 86.1%YES✓
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 15?Polymarket · Oct 15, 2026priced 87.1%YES✓
- Will Toronto bike lanes be removed due to Doug Ford? [v2]Manifold · Oct 15, 2026priced 89.2%YES✓
- Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in September 2026?Kalshi · Oct 14, 2026priced 88.0%YES✓
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in September 2026?Kalshi · Oct 14, 2026priced 87.5%YES✓
- We get Gemini 4 Pro before GTA 6Manifold · Oct 13, 2026priced 85.4%YES✓
- Will SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, October 9, 2026? (Closes early)Manifold · Oct 9, 2026priced 83.6%YES✓
- Do you like 86% odds?Manifold · Oct 9, 2026priced 86.0%NO✗
- Will Bia Kicis win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?Polymarket · Oct 4, 2026priced 83.3%YES✓
- Azerbaijan defeat Liechtenstein ?Manifold · Oct 1, 2026priced 86.0%NO✗
- Will Muse rank #1 in App Store (iPhone) on October 1st 2026Manifold · Oct 1, 2026priced 89.7%YES✓
- Will I stay in masters this season?Manifold · Oct 1, 2026priced 86.3%NO✗
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 24?Polymarket · Sep 24, 2026priced 89.8%YES✓
- Will the US–Denmark–Greenland security agreement be signed before October 15, 2026?Manifold · Sep 22, 2026priced 86.4%YES✓
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?Polymarket · Sep 20, 2026priced 86.2%YES✓
- Nvidia closes at $210.00 or higher on Friday 18 September 2026?Manifold · Sep 18, 2026priced 80.5%YES✓
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?Kalshi · Sep 16, 2026priced 86.5%YES✓
- US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on any day in September 2026?Manifold · Sep 17, 2026priced 88.7%YES✓
- Will the Chase Freedom Flex's 5x categories for Q4 2026 include Groceries AND Dining?Manifold · Sep 16, 2026priced 87.2%YES✓
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Polymarket · Sep 15, 2026priced 87.5%YES✓
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?Kalshi · Sep 16, 2026priced 87.5%YES✓
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in August 2026?Kalshi · Sep 11, 2026priced 87.5%YES✓
- Will I finalize my list of universities for PhD applications by the end of September?Manifold · Sep 10, 2026priced 88.5%YES✓
- Will Hunter Biden actually launch a meme coin on September 9, 2026?Manifold · Sep 9, 2026priced 82.1%YES✓
- Do you like 82% odds?Manifold · Sep 4, 2026priced 81.0%YES✓
- Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?Polymarket · Sep 3, 2026priced 84.0%YES✓
- NVDA earnings: will the stock open up on Aug 27?Manifold · Aug 27, 2026priced 85.1%YES✓
- Will my brother win the game Tapestry in the next two days?Manifold · Aug 26, 2026priced 84.0%YES✓
- Will an AI company be valued at $1 trillion+ before January 1, 2027?Manifold · Aug 15, 2026priced 85.0%YES✓
- If the Clacton by-election is held, will Count Binface get at least 10 percent of the vote?Manifold · Aug 14, 2026priced 85.0%YES✓
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in July 2026?Kalshi · Aug 12, 2026priced 87.5%YES✓
- Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in July 2026?Kalshi · Aug 12, 2026priced 89.0%YES✓
- Will U.S. gasoline CPI (SA) fall 3% or more month-over-month in the July 2026 release?Manifold · Aug 12, 2026priced 82.4%NO✗
- Will I complete my goal by tomorrow night?Manifold · Aug 9, 2026priced 85.5%NO✗
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Polymarket · Aug 2, 2026priced 88.0%YES✓
- Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Polymarket · Aug 3, 2026priced 86.5%YES✓
- Will Seb Krier's Antichrist Meme tweet still be up on August 1st?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 83.3%YES✓
- Jack OR Jesse wins Masters Season 39Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 80.6%YES✓
- Will there be in a runoff in the 2026 Greater Manchestor mayoral by-election?Manifold · Jul 31, 2026priced 82.8%YES✓
- Will the documentary, "Instadocs: The prediction market games" be available on Netflix in July?Manifold · Jul 26, 2026priced 87.8%YES✓
- Will Andy Burnham's No 10 North be in place by the end of 2026?Manifold · Jul 25, 2026priced 85.6%YES✓
- Will Jay Feely win the Republican Primary for Arizona's 1st Congressional District on July 21, 2026?Manifold · Jul 25, 2026priced 83.9%YES✓
- Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?Manifold · Jul 22, 2026priced 81.9%YES✓
- Pittsburgh Pirates beat Cleveland Guardians 7/18/26Manifold · Jul 19, 2026priced 87.4%NO✗
- Will Eric Chen get a Gold Medal on IChO 2026?Manifold · Jul 18, 2026priced 86.5%NO✗
- Will “The Odyssey" receive a CinemaScore of A or above?Manifold · Jul 17, 2026priced 86.0%YES✓
- Will iran and usa stop the war permanent on 31.juniManifold · Jul 9, 2026priced 80.9%NO✗
- Will Graham Platner drop out of the Maine senate election on or before July 14?Manifold · Jul 8, 2026priced 88.0%YES✓
- Will AI beat humans at AtCoder World Tour Finals 2026?Manifold · Jul 8, 2026priced 84.9%YES✓
- will i get a 5 on ap physics 1Manifold · Jul 6, 2026priced 85.0%YES✓
- Will Germany hit an all time record high temperature in 2026?Manifold · Jul 3, 2026priced 87.6%YES✓
- Will I be promoted to platinum at the end of this season?Manifold · Jul 2, 2026priced 85.1%YES✓
- Will the SSPX catholics incur excommunications in 2026?Manifold · Jul 2, 2026priced 88.9%YES✓
- Will the June 2026 Venezuela earthquakes have a confirmed death toll of 2,000+ by Aug 1, 2026?Manifold · Jul 2, 2026priced 82.0%YES✓
- Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by August 31?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 88.9%YES✓
- Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 31?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 84.8%YES✓
- Will May 2026 U.S. housing starts be at least 1.4 million (SAAR)?Manifold · Jun 30, 2026priced 83.7%NO✗
- Will the ROAD to Housing Act be presented to President Trump by the end of June?Manifold · Jun 30, 2026priced 88.0%YES✓
- Will my Trader bonuses exceed 100,000 for the June 2026 season?Manifold · Jun 28, 2026priced 83.8%YES✓
- Will I make USA TST Group 2027?Manifold · Jun 27, 2026priced 80.0%YES✓
- Will TADC: The Last Act reach 50M YouTube views by July 15, 2026?Manifold · Jun 22, 2026priced 88.0%YES✓
- Will I score higher than 1500 on the June 6th SAT?Manifold · Jun 22, 2026priced 83.9%YES✓
- Starmer out before December?Manifold · Jun 22, 2026priced 82.7%YES✓
- Will someone on Manifold Markets DM me about network marketing or multi-level marketing by 2/22/27?Manifold · Jun 19, 2026priced 84.6%YES✓
- Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?Manifold · Jun 15, 2026priced 83.9%YES✓
- Will SPY close above $737.55 on Friday, June 12, 2026?Manifold · Jun 13, 2026priced 87.3%YES✓
- Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire by June 22, 2026?Manifold · Jun 12, 2026priced 88.8%YES✓
- Will El Niño be declared before December 2026?Manifold · Jun 12, 2026priced 86.9%YES✓
- When Claude Mythos is released, will it have different benchmark scores reported by Anthropic than Claude Mythos PreviewManifold · Jun 10, 2026priced 90.0%YES✓
Shows up to the 200 most recent graded outcomes in this range. ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.