As of Oct 19, 2026, 2:31 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 84.9% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 1K mana of pool liquidity.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — the venue's feed doesn't report liquidity for this market — though most recent trading came from one account.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
0 mana
Total volume
27 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
2
Trades
3
over 12 days
Largest order
25 mana
27 mana traded across these 3 trades (last 12 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
This market resolves YES if Tennessee Amendment 2 (Proposed amendment to Article II, Section 28 (prohibit state property tax)) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Two prongs (Tenn. Const.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
This market resolves YES if Tennessee Amendment 2 (Proposed amendment to Article II, Section 28 (prohibit state property tax)) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Two prongs (Tenn. Const. art. XI §3): (1) more YES than NO; (2) YES votes > half of all votes cast for governor. YES must exceed 50% of total gubernatorial votes; upheld in George v. Hargett (6th Cir. 2018). Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Constitution bars any state-level property tax. NO: Art. II §28 unchanged; no constitutional ban on a state property tax. Results: resolves on the result certified by Tennessee Secretary of State / State Election Commission (statewide canvass). It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://sos.tn.gov/elections/announcements/2026-proposed-constitutional-amendments
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 19, 4:11 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.