Starmer out before December?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 82.7%.
- Final market price
- 82.7%
- Event deadline
- November 30, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 82.7%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 82.7%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Starmer out before December? The final Manifold price was 82.7%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 82.7%.
- Market data as of
- June 25, 2026 at 4:27 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:42 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- November 30, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 118d ago
What this market actually measures
Update 2026-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve based on the linked Polymarket market. An announcement of resignation would count as Starmer being "out".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Update 2026-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve based on the linked Polymarket market. An announcement of resignation would count as Starmer being "out".