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ManifoldPoliticsUpdated 71d ago

Starmer out before December?

Final price
82.7%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 82.7%.

Final market price
82.7%
Event deadline
November 30, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
Probability 24 hours before event deadline
82.7%
Probability seven days before event deadline
82.7%
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Starmer out before December? The final Manifold price was 82.7%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 82.7%.

Market data as of
June 25, 2026 at 4:27 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:01 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
November 30, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
71d ago

What this market actually measures

Update 2026-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve based on the linked Polymarket market. An announcement of resignation would count as Starmer being "out".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Update 2026-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve based on the linked Polymarket market. An announcement of resignation would count as Starmer being "out".

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ30

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ217.8

Category
Politics
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
82.7%
Resolves
Nov 30, 2026

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