Will May 2026 U.S. housing starts be at least 1.4 million (SAAR)?

This market resolves YES if the initial Census/HUD New Residential Construction release for May 2026 reports total privately-owned U.S. housing starts at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,400,000 or higher. Use the total United States housing starts SAAR value in the initial May 2026 New Residential Construction release. Resolve NO if that value is 1,399,000 or lower. Do not use building permits, housing completions, new residential sales, single-family-only starts, multifamily-only starts, regional starts, not seasonally adjusted counts, year-over-year changes, or later annual revisions unless Census/HUD corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 New Residential Construction release is delayed, wait for the first Census/HUD release containing the May 2026 total housing-starts SAAR value unless there is no such release by June 30, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2025_total_housing_starts_saar": 1400000, "april_2026_building_permits_saar": 1442000, "april_2026_housing_completions_saar": 1449000, "april_2026_mom_percent": -2.8, "april_2026_total_housing_starts_saar": 1465000, "april_2026_yoy_percent": 4.6, "march_2026_revised_total_housing_starts_saar": 1507000, "release": "Monthly New Residential Construction, April 2026"}, "metric": "Privately-owned housing starts, total United States, seasonally adjusted annual rate", "related_non_duplicates": ["Building-permits markets are not duplicates.", "Housing-completions markets are not duplicates.", "New-residential-sales markets are not duplicates.", "Single-family-only, multifamily-only, regional, unadjusted-count, or year-over-year housing-starts markets are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "The Census economic-indicators calendar lists New Residential Construction for May 2026 at 8:30 AM on June 16, 2026.", "resolver_surface": "Initial Census/HUD New Residential Construction release for May 2026", "threshold_units": "1,400,000 housing units at SAAR"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Census economic indicators calendar: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html - Census construction release schedule: https://www.census.gov/construction/soc/schedule.html - April 2026 New Residential Construction PDF: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst_202604.pdf - Census current New Residential Construction page: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.html