Will I finalize my list of universities for PhD applications by the end of September?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 88.5%.
- Final market price
- 88.5%
- Event deadline
- September 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 88.5%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 88.5%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will I finalize my list of universities for PhD applications by the end of September? The final Manifold price was 88.5%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 88.5%.
- Market data as of
- September 11, 2026 at 6:53 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:40 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 40d ago
What this market actually measures
I had an initial list of 40 universities that is now cut down to 23. Hoping to cut it down further to around 15-18 schools.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
I had an initial list of 40 universities that is now cut down to 23. Hoping to cut it down further to around 15-18 schools. Portals open in September, so this is measured by the number of active applications I have at the end of the month More details will be available soon as I create more markets on my application process!