When Claude Mythos is released, will it have different benchmark scores reported by Anthropic than Claude Mythos Preview
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Final market price
- 99.0%
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 99.0%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 99.0%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
When Claude Mythos is released, will it have different benchmark scores reported by Anthropic than Claude Mythos Preview The final Manifold price was 99.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Market data as of
- June 12, 2026 at 11:11 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:39 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 130d ago
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve when a model is released by Anthropic to the public, via the API, the Claude app, Claude code, or any other publicly available location. This market will resolve yes if within 24 hours of this, Anthropic releases a system card that reports any different benchmark scores than the scores in Claude Mythos Preview's card.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve when a model is released by Anthropic to the public, via the API, the Claude app, Claude code, or any other publicly available location. This market will resolve yes if within 24 hours of this, Anthropic releases a system card that reports any different benchmark scores than the scores in Claude Mythos Preview's card. If this doesn't occur, the market will resolve no. A different benchmark scored is defined as a score that is different on a benchmark actually reported in the Mythos Preview system card. If a new benchmark is reported in the system card that wasn't reported in the Mythos Preview system card, this would not be sufficient to resolve yes. If no system card is released within 24 hours of the release of a model with Mythos in the name to the public, the market will resolve no. I may trade on this market.