Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?
No meaningful 24-hour repricing, though the price is still shifting on shorter windows.
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (0 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve according to the number of views the Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look video gets in the first 168 hours after being posted on the Rockstar Games YouTube channel. This market may not resolve until the 168 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of views the Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look video gets in the first 168 hours after being posted on the Rockstar Games YouTube channel. This market may not resolve until the 168 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is Rockstar Games' YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@RockstarGames), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers only to "Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look" (see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJbzMqJGH4k)
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 3, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 1, 9:44 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.