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ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 63d ago

Will the SSPX catholics incur excommunications in 2026?

Final price
88.9%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 88.9%.

Final market price
88.9%
Event deadline
December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
Probability 24 hours before event deadline
88.9%
Probability seven days before event deadline
88.9%
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will the SSPX catholics incur excommunications in 2026? The final Manifold price was 88.9%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 88.9%.

Market data as of
July 4, 2026 at 11:18 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:03 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
63d ago

What this market actually measures

Please give me some leeway in resolving. This may lead to subtle and technical canon law decisions that are above my understanding.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Please give me some leeway in resolving. This may lead to subtle and technical canon law decisions that are above my understanding. Like the first round of SSPX consecrations in 1988, so too the 2026 consecrations will take place in Écône, Switzerland, and once again the new bishops will be ordained not merely without the required mandate from the person they recognize as the Pope of the Catholic Church (Robert Prevost, aka Leo XIV) but even against his express prohibition and under the threat of the worst possible penalty. The severest type of ecclesiastical punishment the Novus Ordo Code of Canon Law of 1983 has to offer — that of excommunication latae sententiae reserved to the Holy See (see Canon 1387) — awaits the four new bishops as well as the two consecrating bishops (Alfonso de Galaretta and Bernard Fellay) under the supposition that Leo XIV is the Pope (as the Lefebvrists erroneously believe). Because it is inflicted automatically (latae sententiae), the penalty is incurred by the very commission of the act (ipso facto), without the need for an official declaration or any other kind of authoritative intervention. In other words, even if the Vatican does not react at all, the excommunication is still incurred. https://novusordowatch.org/2026/05/new-generation-of-fsspx-bishops/ See related question here: https://manifold.markets/Manipulative_Manatee/sspx-bishops-to-be-consecrated-july?r=dWFpcjAx

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ283.1

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
88.9%
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026

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