Will the SSPX catholics incur excommunications in 2026?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 88.9%.
- Final market price
- 88.9%
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 88.9%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 88.9%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the SSPX catholics incur excommunications in 2026? The final Manifold price was 88.9%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 88.9%.
- Market data as of
- July 4, 2026 at 11:18 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 5, 2026 at 1:03 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 63d ago
What this market actually measures
Please give me some leeway in resolving. This may lead to subtle and technical canon law decisions that are above my understanding.
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View full official resolution rules
Please give me some leeway in resolving. This may lead to subtle and technical canon law decisions that are above my understanding. Like the first round of SSPX consecrations in 1988, so too the 2026 consecrations will take place in Écône, Switzerland, and once again the new bishops will be ordained not merely without the required mandate from the person they recognize as the Pope of the Catholic Church (Robert Prevost, aka Leo XIV) but even against his express prohibition and under the threat of the worst possible penalty. The severest type of ecclesiastical punishment the Novus Ordo Code of Canon Law of 1983 has to offer — that of excommunication latae sententiae reserved to the Holy See (see Canon 1387) — awaits the four new bishops as well as the two consecrating bishops (Alfonso de Galaretta and Bernard Fellay) under the supposition that Leo XIV is the Pope (as the Lefebvrists erroneously believe). Because it is inflicted automatically (latae sententiae), the penalty is incurred by the very commission of the act (ipso facto), without the need for an official declaration or any other kind of authoritative intervention. In other words, even if the Vatican does not react at all, the excommunication is still incurred. https://novusordowatch.org/2026/05/new-generation-of-fsspx-bishops/ See related question here: https://manifold.markets/Manipulative_Manatee/sspx-bishops-to-be-consecrated-july?r=dWFpcjAx
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ283.1
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 88.9%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026