Will an AI company be valued at $1 trillion+ before January 1, 2027?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 85.0%.
- Final market price
- 85.0%
- Event deadline
- August 15, 2026 at 3:33 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will an AI company be valued at $1 trillion+ before January 1, 2027? The final Manifold price was 85.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 85.0%.
- Market data as of
- August 17, 2026 at 7:01 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 15, 2026 at 3:33 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 64d ago
What this market actually measures
This market asks whether an AI-focused company will reach a valuation of $1 trillion USD or more before January 1, 2027. The market resolves YES if a qualifying AI company is publicly reported to have a valuation of at least $1 trillion through a completed funding round, acquisition, IPO, or other verifiable transaction or market valuation before the deadline.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market asks whether an AI-focused company will reach a valuation of $1 trillion USD or more before January 1, 2027. The market resolves YES if a qualifying AI company is publicly reported to have a valuation of at least $1 trillion through a completed funding round, acquisition, IPO, or other verifiable transaction or market valuation before the deadline. Otherwise, it resolves NO. The company must have AI as a core part of its business, rather than merely being a company that uses AI. Valuation claims should be supported by reputable financial or news sources. Useful references include CompaniesMarketCap and Reuters. Resolution date: December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.