ProbCast.coOdds Reliability
ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDevelopingUpdated 4m ago

Will the Dow Jones close above 51,000 on Wednesday, October 14, 2026?

As of Oct 13, 2026, 4:18 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 84.9% (up from 83.4% 24 hours earlier). It had 42.6 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
84.9%
+1.4 percentage points
over 24 hours83.4% → 84.9%
Resolving soon

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

42.6 mana

Total volume

42.6 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

One account dominates
61%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

4

Trades

5

over 3h

Largest order

25 mana

40.8 mana traded across these 5 trades (last 3h).

One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.

Recent trade activity$40.8 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesOctober 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 13, 4:23 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±22 pts.

Resolving soonLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Resolving soon

Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.

  • Resolves in 1 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next704 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~13h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+1.47D+1.4

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