Israel closes its airspace by September 30?69%59.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?50%9.0Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?34%15.5Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?51%10.0Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?69%14.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 5?13%5.5Did Claude just solve navier stokes??27%12.3Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?49%14.0Bitcoin Up or Down on September 5?65%4.0Fed rate hike in 2026?72%10.0Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?24%4.5Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?10%7.0Will Donald Trump order a new U.S. attack on Iran by the end of 2026?86%21.0Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?50%8.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?86%0.5Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026?29%29.5
ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 63d ago

Will I be promoted to platinum at the end of this season?

Final price
85.1%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 85.1%.

Final market price
85.1%
Event deadline
July 1, 2026 at 12:59 AM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will I be promoted to platinum at the end of this season? The final Manifold price was 85.1%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 85.1%.

Market data as of
July 4, 2026 at 12:58 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:03 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
July 1, 2026 at 12:59 AM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
63d ago

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if I finish the current competitive season at the rank of Platinum or higher. It will resolve to NO if my final rank at the end of the season is Gold or lower, or if I fail to place in a rank.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if I finish the current competitive season at the rank of Platinum or higher. It will resolve to NO if my final rank at the end of the season is Gold or lower, or if I fail to place in a rank. Resolution will be based on my final end-of-season rank in my main competitive game. Background This market tracks my personal progress on the competitive ladder for the current gaming season.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ1K

Total volume

Ṁ1.5K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
85.1%
Resolves
Jul 1, 2026

Related markets