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ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 81d ago

Will SPY close above $737.55 on Friday, June 12, 2026?

Final price
87.3%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 87.3%.

Final market price
87.3%
Event deadline
June 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will SPY close above $737.55 on Friday, June 12, 2026? The final Manifold price was 87.3%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 87.3%.

Market data as of
June 15, 2026 at 7:14 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:03 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
June 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
81d ago

What this market actually measures

Based on Yahoo Finance Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) closes at a price strictly greater than $737.55 on Friday, June 12, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Based on Yahoo Finance Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) closes at a price strictly greater than $737.55 on Friday, June 12, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO. The reference price is SPY's closing price on Friday, June 5, 2026: $737.55, as reported by Yahoo Finance. The official resolution price will be determined by the data provided on the Yahoo Finance SPY summary page. If the market is closed on June 12, 2026, or if no trade occurs on that date, the market will resolve based on the closing price of the next available trading day.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ330.3

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ353.7

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
87.3%
Resolves
Jun 12, 2026

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