Israel closes its airspace by September 30?69%59.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?50%9.0Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?34%15.5Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?51%10.0Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?69%14.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 5?13%5.5Did Claude just solve navier stokes??27%12.3Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?49%14.0Bitcoin Up or Down on September 5?65%4.0Fed rate hike in 2026?72%10.0Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?24%4.5Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?10%7.0Will Donald Trump order a new U.S. attack on Iran by the end of 2026?86%21.0Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?50%8.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?86%0.5Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026?29%29.5
ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 67d ago

Will I make USA TST Group 2027?

Final price
80.0%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 80.0%.

Final market price
80.0%
Event deadline
June 19, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will I make USA TST Group 2027? The final Manifold price was 80.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 80.0%.

Market data as of
June 30, 2026 at 12:02 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:01 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
June 19, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
67d ago

What this market actually measures

I am taking the 2026 TSTST. I got a 627 677 on JMO 2026.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

I am taking the 2026 TSTST. I got a 627 677 on JMO 2026. I will only bet yes.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ680.2

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
80.0%
Resolves
Jun 19, 2026

Related markets