Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
129.5 mana
Total volume
178.6 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will the UK set the National Living Wage at £13.20 an hour or more from April 2027?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 1:32 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 85.0% (up from 55.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 129.5 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
85.0%
+30 percentage points
over 24 hours55.0% → 85.0%
Moving fastBig move, weak backingResolving soon
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (30 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
66%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
6
Trades
7
over 6 days
Largest order
104.7 mana
157.7 mana traded across these 7 trades (last 6 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$157.7 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution. Resolves YES if the hourly National Living Wage rate for April 2027 that the UK government announces is £13.20 or more, and NO if it is £13.19 or less.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution. Resolves YES if the hourly National Living Wage rate for April 2027 that the UK government announces is £13.20 or more, and NO if it is £13.19 or less. If the age threshold changes, the rate for the oldest age band governs. If more than one rate is set for 2027-28, the rate in force on 1 April 2027 governs. The market resolves on the first rate the government announces, on gov.uk or in the Budget documents, whether before, on or after Budget day. If no rate is announced by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. The rate from April 2026 is £12.71. The Low Pay Commission's spring 2026 estimate of the rate that would keep the NLW at two-thirds of median earnings was £13.18, within a range of £13.02 to £13.34. This market closes at 12:00 UTC on 28 October 2026, 30 minutes before the Budget speech. If the rate is announced before then, traders will know it before the close. The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above. The 28 October 2026 close stays fixed if the Budget moves. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget. Holdings update, 27 October 2026. The creator now holds 137.7 YES shares in this market. This replaces any earlier holdings figure above; the resolution rules are unchanged.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 30.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (55.0% → 85.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 28, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 27, 1:42 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±31 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 30.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
2Low
Where the price path tends to go next557 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~3h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+30.024H+30.07D+30.0
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