Will El Niño be declared before December 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 86.9%.
- Final market price
- 86.9%
- Event deadline
- November 30, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 86.9%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 86.9%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will El Niño be declared before December 2026? The final Manifold price was 86.9%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 86.9%.
- Market data as of
- June 14, 2026 at 7:13 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:42 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- November 30, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 128d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issues an "El Niño Advisory" before 1 December 2026. Resolves NO otherwise.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issues an "El Niño Advisory" before 1 December 2026. Resolves NO otherwise. Background: https://wmo.int/media/news/wmo-prepare-el-nino [link preview]