Will El Niño be declared before December 2026?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 86.9%.
- Final market price
- 86.9%
- Event deadline
- November 30, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 86.9%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 86.9%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will El Niño be declared before December 2026? The final Manifold price was 86.9%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 86.9%.
- Market data as of
- June 14, 2026 at 7:13 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 5, 2026 at 1:03 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- November 30, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 82d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issues an "El Niño Advisory" before 1 December 2026. Resolves NO otherwise.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issues an "El Niño Advisory" before 1 December 2026. Resolves NO otherwise. Background: https://wmo.int/media/news/wmo-prepare-el-nino [link preview]
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ500
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 86.9%
- Resolves
- Nov 30, 2026