As of Oct 29, 2026, 1:27 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 50.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $53K traded in the past 24 hours, $2.2K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 2.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Source: Polymarket price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (0 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$2.2K
Bid-ask spread
2.0 pts
24h volume
$53K
Total volume
$73.7K
It would take roughly $274.9 of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
46
Trades
170
over 6 days
Largest order
$6.2K
$38K traded across these 170 trades (last 6 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Resolution source: home.treasury.gov
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 29, 1:34 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±22 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.