Will U.S. gasoline CPI (SA) fall 3% or more month-over-month in the July 2026 release?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 83.0%.
- Final market price
- 83.0%
- Event deadline
- August 12, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will U.S. gasoline CPI (SA) fall 3% or more month-over-month in the July 2026 release? The final Manifold price was 83.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 83.0%.
- Market data as of
- August 15, 2026 at 1:09 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 12, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 67d ago
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for July 2026 shows that the seasonally adjusted gasoline (all types) index fell by 3.0% or more month-over-month from June 2026. **Series:** CUSR0000SETB01 ("Gasoline (all types) in U.S.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for July 2026 shows that the seasonally adjusted gasoline (all types) index fell by 3.0% or more month-over-month from June 2026. **Series:** CUSR0000SETB01 ("Gasoline (all types) in U.S. city average, all urban consumers, seasonally adjusted"), available free at https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v1/timeseries/data/CUSR0000SETB01 **Resolution:** Compute (July 2026 index / June 2026 index - 1) x 100 from the FIRST BLS July 2026 CPI release. Resolves YES if that value is -3.0% or lower (i.e. a decline of 3.0% or more). Resolves NO if it is higher than -3.0% (including any increase). The June 2026 value at market creation is 341.980; the May 2026 value is 378.660. Use only the seasonally adjusted series named above. Do NOT use the not-seasonally-adjusted gasoline index, the broader energy index (CUSR0000SA0E), headline or core CPI, retail price surveys (AAA, GasBuddy, EIA weekly), crude oil prices, or later annual revisions — unless BLS corrects the initial July 2026 release before resolution. If there is no BLS July 2026 CPI release by 2026-08-31, this resolves N/A. **Note on the close time:** trading closes at 12:25 UTC on 2026-08-12, five minutes before the 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET) BLS release. That is deliberate anti-sniping design — the market resolves AFTER the print, on the actual published number, not on any forecast. **Why this is interesting:** June 2026 gasoline fell 9.69% SA, dragging headline CPI to -0.422% while core was -0.017%. But gasoline at 341.98 is still ~24% above its February 2026 level of 276.754, while WTI has round-tripped from its ~$119 March high back to roughly $75. The open question is how much of that crude unwind is still in transit to the pump, and whether July delivers another large leg down or the decline flattens out.