ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsDevelopingUpdated 13m ago

Will Georgia Amendment 1 (conservation use acreage limit increase) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

As of Oct 19, 2026, 5:10 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 85.0% (down from 88.5% 24 hours earlier). It had 35.8 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
85.0%
−3.5 percentage points
over 24 hours88.5% → 85.0%

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.

Price historyManifold

Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

1K mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

35.8 mana

Total volume

39.8 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

One account dominates
100%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

1

Trades

4

over 1 min

Largest order

1 mana

4 mana traded across these 4 trades (last 1 min).

One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.

Recent trade activity$4 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market resolves YES if Georgia Amendment 1 (Increases the maximum qualifying acreage for assessment and taxation as bona fide conservation use property.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Majority of votes cast on the question (Ga. Const.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market resolves YES if Georgia Amendment 1 (Increases the maximum qualifying acreage for assessment and taxation as bona fide conservation use property.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Majority of votes cast on the question (Ga. Const. art. X, §I, ¶II: 'ratified by a majority of the electors qualified to vote for members of the General Assembly voting thereon') Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Up to 4,000 acres of a single owner's farm/timber land may qualify for conservation use assessment. NO: The 2,000-acre limit stays. Results: resolves on the result certified by Georgia Secretary of State certifies; Governor proclaims ratified amendments. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://sos.ga.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/2026%20Constitutional%20Summaries%20booklet%20FINAL.pdf

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 3.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (88.5% → 85.0%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesNovember 4, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 19, 5:23 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±22 pts.

One big traderLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

high classifier confidence
One big trader

Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.

  • One participant drove 100% of recent flow
  • Move not broadly confirmed (1 participants)

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
28Low
Where the price path tends to go next604 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~19h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H-3.524H-3.57D-3.5