Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
35.8 mana
Total volume
39.8 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
As of Oct 19, 2026, 5:10 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 85.0% (down from 88.5% 24 hours earlier). It had 35.8 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (3.5 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
35.8 mana
Total volume
39.8 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
1
Trades
4
over 1 min
Largest order
1 mana
4 mana traded across these 4 trades (last 1 min).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
This market resolves YES if Georgia Amendment 1 (Increases the maximum qualifying acreage for assessment and taxation as bona fide conservation use property.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Majority of votes cast on the question (Ga. Const.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
This market resolves YES if Georgia Amendment 1 (Increases the maximum qualifying acreage for assessment and taxation as bona fide conservation use property.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Majority of votes cast on the question (Ga. Const. art. X, §I, ¶II: 'ratified by a majority of the electors qualified to vote for members of the General Assembly voting thereon') Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Up to 4,000 acres of a single owner's farm/timber land may qualify for conservation use assessment. NO: The 2,000-acre limit stays. Results: resolves on the result certified by Georgia Secretary of State certifies; Governor proclaims ratified amendments. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://sos.ga.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/2026%20Constitutional%20Summaries%20booklet%20FINAL.pdf
The probability fell 3.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (88.5% → 85.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 19, 5:23 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±22 pts.
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.