Markets priced 60–70%
The individual resolved markets behind this bucket of the calibration curve. “Priced” is what the market showed 24 hours before its deadline — a real forecast, not the settlement price.
51 markets · 29 resolved YES (57%)
- Will my supervisor accept my thesis topic?Manifold · Sep 2, 2026priced 66.1%YES✓
- Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Polymarket · Aug 25, 2026priced 68.2%YES✓
- Will Rebeca Grynspan still lead the UN Secretary-General straw poll after Ivonne Baki joins the race?Manifold · Aug 21, 2026priced 64.2%NO✗
- Will a new prize drawing be opened before end of August?Manifold · Aug 15, 2026priced 61.0%YES✓
- Will a new prize drawing be opened before end of August?Manifold · Aug 15, 2026priced 61.0%YES✓
- Will Mohamed Salah score a goal in his debut match for Trabzonspor against Kasımpaşa on August 15, 2026?Manifold · Aug 15, 2026priced 68.4%NO✗
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?Polymarket · Aug 14, 2026priced 62.5%NO✗
- Will I see a whale for at least ~5 seconds tomorrow?Manifold · Aug 12, 2026priced 61.8%NO✗
- Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in July 2026?Kalshi · Aug 12, 2026priced 60.5%YES✓
- Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?Manifold · Aug 5, 2026priced 61.4%YES✓
- Will I vote in the Michigan primary this month?Manifold · Aug 4, 2026priced 62.8%YES✓
- Will Sirui Sheng get a Gold Medal on IOL 2026?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 61.9%NO✗
- Will SPY's July 2026 closing price be higher than its July 2026 opening price?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 61.4%YES✓
- @ 5:30 am PDT today my Chatterbox score is 111. Will it reach 333 by August 1, 2026 (8/1/26)?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 61.0%NO✗
- Will Israel attack Iran in July 2026?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 66.9%NO✗
- Will I walk 25 minutes or more 8 times by August 1, 2026? (I walked 25 mins this morning for the first time in a while.)Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 61.0%NO✗
- Will I complete my next job interview?Manifold · Jul 31, 2026priced 63.5%NO✗
- Will I fly to ESPR?Manifold · Jul 28, 2026priced 69.2%YES✓
- Will 2 or more total HRs be hit in the Cardinals v Cubs game on 7/27?Manifold · Jul 27, 2026priced 64.5%YES✓
- Will G2 beat KC on July 26th?Manifold · Jul 27, 2026priced 62.3%NO✗
- Will i get more than 41 traders on my other market?Manifold · Jul 25, 2026priced 60.4%YES✓
- Will "The House on the Borderland - A First-Draft of a Film Adaptation" get one hundred views in its first month?Manifold · Jul 23, 2026priced 68.6%YES✓
- Will I give up manifold by 25th julyManifold · Jul 22, 2026priced 67.5%YES✓
- Will Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey gross over $112.5 Million in its domestic opening weekend?Manifold · Jul 19, 2026priced 63.7%YES✓
- Will I work out at a gym by July 17 (7/17/26)?Manifold · Jul 17, 2026priced 69.9%NO✗
- Will the officially recorded high temperature in Los Angeles, CA reach or exceed 91°F on Wednesday, July 15, 2026?Manifold · Jul 16, 2026priced 65.8%YES✓
- Do you like 66% odds?Manifold · Jul 14, 2026priced 66.0%NO✗
- Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $67.50 on July 8, 2026?Manifold · Jul 9, 2026priced 60.0%YES✓
- Will anyone find a term higher than 137724785 for OEIS A390875 before January 1, 2027?Manifold · Jul 8, 2026priced 67.9%YES✓
- will this market have 50 unique traders by july 5Manifold · Jul 5, 2026priced 66.7%NO✗
- I woke up to find 500 unique traders in my markets today. Will I reach 900 by 7/17/26?Manifold · Jul 4, 2026priced 67.0%YES✓
- Will I pass my Power BI PL-300 exam on first attempt?Manifold · Jul 3, 2026priced 60.6%YES✓
- Will Portugal win against Croatia?Manifold · Jul 2, 2026priced 70.0%YES✓
- Fable reenabled for Europeans before the first of August 2026?Manifold · Jul 2, 2026priced 61.6%YES✓
- Will June 2026 U.S. average hourly earnings rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?Manifold · Jul 2, 2026priced 64.0%YES✓
- Will I organize or play a social deduction game with prediction markets before July?Manifold · Jul 2, 2026priced 64.8%YES✓
- Will May 2026 U.S. disposable personal income rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 60.0%YES✓
- Will BTC hit $70k in July after market creation?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 67.8%NO✗
- Will Manuel Adorni leave the Argentine government before August 1, 2026?Manifold · Jun 29, 2026priced 69.0%YES✓
- Will I get a 32768 tile in 2048 at MOP 2026?Manifold · Jun 27, 2026priced 66.0%NO✗
- Will Cowork be added to the Claude iOS app on June 26, 2026?Manifold · Jun 27, 2026priced 64.4%NO✗
- Do you like 62% odds?Manifold · Jun 24, 2026priced 62.0%YES✓
- Will my cat recover from pneumonia in one week?Manifold · Jun 22, 2026priced 66.5%NO✗
- Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?Manifold · Jun 22, 2026priced 62.5%NO✗
- Will Brendan Sorsby play a snap for Texas Tech during the 2026 season?Manifold · Jun 15, 2026priced 65.6%NO✗
- Will May 2026 U.S. industrial production rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?Manifold · Jun 15, 2026priced 65.0%NO✗
- Will May 2026 U.S. manufacturing output rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?Manifold · Jun 15, 2026priced 61.3%NO✗
- Will I succeed in teaching my deaf grandmother 20 words in sign language by 12 PM Saturday, June 13?Manifold · Jun 15, 2026priced 67.8%NO✗
- Will SpaceX close worth more than $2 trillion on IPO day?Manifold · Jun 12, 2026priced 66.0%YES✓
- Will a Claude Fable model be released Tuesday June 9th?Manifold · Jun 9, 2026priced 67.0%YES✓
- Will Claude Mythos be released by the end of June 2026?Manifold · Jun 9, 2026priced 68.6%YES✓
Shows up to the 200 most recent graded outcomes in this range. ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.